The ongoing standoff at the Second Thomas Shoal, known in China as Ren’ai Jiao and in the Philippines as Ayungin Shoal, epitomizes the intricate tensions over sovereignty, maritime rights, and international law that characterize the South China Sea dispute. The Philippines’ continued efforts to resupply the grounded warship BRP Sierra Madre, juxtaposed with China’s stern warnings and maritime enforcement, reveal a deeper paradox faced by the Philippines and a strategic dilemma confronting China.
菲律宾是南海争端重要当事国，主张对位于其200海里内海域拥有管辖权，同时对中沙群岛黄岩岛及南沙群岛部分海洋地物提出声索。自20世纪60年代以后，菲律宾围绕南海争端的政策行为可以概括“一条主线、三点举措”，即聚焦海洋扩张目标，采取军事和灰色手段非法占领部分岛礁、以国内立法和诉诸第三方机制强化权利主张、寻求美国支持以巩固海上主张等三方面举措，巩固并扩大海上主张。2024年6月，菲律宾单方面向联合国大陆架界限委员会提交了南海200海里外大陆架的划界申请，覆盖海域面积比专属经济区大的多，这是菲律宾再一次海洋扩张的企图。小马科斯上任不久，除保持原有常规政策手段外，菲律宾政府围绕南海争议的政策取向表现出“极端化”倾向，一些措施甚至违反现代国际关系的基本准则，甚至部分举措则完全脱离菲律宾外交政策常规轨道，呈现出由“国家利益主导”向“情绪冲动主导”转变的趋势。菲律宾“极端化”倾向反映出政治家族、官僚集团、精英群体间错综复杂的争斗，同时与美国的强大影响不无关系。受国内政治思潮及政治集团结构等因素作用，这一趋势难以预见会随着权力更迭而逆转，与此同时也面临来自地区和双边关系的多重挑战叠加。
The Philippines is a key party to the South China Sea disputes, claiming jurisdiction over waters within 200 nautical miles of its coast, while also asserting sovereignty over Scarborough Shoal in the Zhongsha Islands and certain features in the Spratly Islands. Since the 1960s, the Philippines’ policy actions concerning the South China Sea disputes can be summarized as “one main thread and three measures”: focusing on the goal of maritime expansion; illegally occupying certain islands and reefs through military and gray-zone tactics; strengthening its claims through domestic legislation and by resorting to third-party mechanisms; and seeking U.S. support to consolidate and expand its maritime claims. In June 2024, the Philippines unilaterally submitted a delimitation application to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf for areas in the South China Sea beyond 200 nautical miles. The area covered is much larger than its exclusive economic zone, marking yet another attempt by the Philippines at maritime expansion. Shortly after Marcos took office, in addition to maintaining its conventional policy approaches, the Philippine government’s stance on the South China Sea disputes began to show signs of “radicalization.” Some measures have even violated the basic norms of modern international relations, while others have departed entirely from the traditional trajectory of Philippine foreign policy—reflecting a shift from being “driven by national interests” to being “driven by emotional impulses.” The Philippines’ tendency toward “radicalization” reflects the complex struggles among political families, bureaucratic circles, and elite groups, while also being closely linked to the strong influence of the United States. Shaped by domestic political currents and the structure of political groupings, this trend is unlikely to be reversed with a change of leadership. At the same time, it faces compounded challenges arising from both regional dynamics and bilateral relations.
自2022年7月正式走马上任，小马科斯入主马拉鄢宫、执掌菲律宾总统大选已超3年。背负延续其父亲荣耀、振兴和重建家族势力的小马科斯，给国际社会尤其是本地区留下了深刻的印象。小马科斯政府的外交政策表现出与其前任截然不同的风格，相比于杜特尔特政府的务实主义，表现出了极强的“政治精英主义”和“利益集团主义”的色彩。过去三年里，国内粮食和能源价格危机、通货膨胀、高失业率同样是菲律宾普通民众不能承受之重，小马科斯政府发起的针对杜特尔特家族的政治斗争更是出人意料。
Since taking office in July 2022, Marcos Jr. has been in charge of Malayan Palace for more than three years. To carry on the glory of his previous generation, to revitalize and to rebuild his family power, Marcos Jr. has deeply impressed the international community, especially its own region. The foreign policy of the Marcos administration showed a style, distinguished from the pragmatism of the Duterte administration, with a strong sense of “political elitism” and “interest groupism”. Over the past three years, domestic food and energy price crises, inflation, and high unemployment rates have been unbearable for ordinary Filipinos, political struggle initiated by the Marcos administration against the Duterte family has been even more unexpected.
When the Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. stood side by side with the U.S. President Donald Trump in the White House on July 22, the symbolic weight of the moment was lost on none. During what Trump described as a “beautiful visit,” the United States and the Philippines struck a lopsided trade deal, allowing U.S. goods to enter the Philippine market tariff-free, while goods from the Philippines would face a 19 percent tariff upon entering the U.S. market.
The perception gap stems from both historical roots and legal interpretations. A joint, fact-based, truly collaborative process could be a start.
The USS Higgins destroyer on Wednesday illegally intruded into the territorial waters of China's Huangyan Dao without authorization from the Chinese government. The 7th Fleet spokesperson, Sarah Merrill, stated that “USS Higgins conducted this FONOP in accordance with international law and then continued on to conduct normal operations. The operation reflects our commitment to uphold the freedom of navigation and lawful uses of the sea as a principle. The United States is defending its right to fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as USS Higgins did here. Nothing China says otherwise will deter us.”
2025年8月13日，美国海军驱逐舰“希金斯”号未经中国政府批准，非法闯入中国黄岩岛领海。美第七舰队发言人表示，此次“航行自由行动”（FONOP）挑战了中国在军舰进入其领海进行无害通过前要求事先通知和授权的规定。该发言人还在声明中表示，“美国（的航行自由行动）表明，无害通过不受此类限制约束。菲律宾并未对此次航行自由行动相关海域提出任何过分海洋主张。”
